Why Ernst Won the Iowa Senate Seat

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The Iowa Senate Race is a great example to show that communication matters in politics. The race was determined based upon which candidate had the most effective communication with its voters. Evidently, Joni Ernst’s campaign had more effective political communication.

Joni Ernst started off as a Iowa State Senator that no one had heard of. This was the case until she released her first, and very popular, political advertisement. ‘Squeal’ has close to 1 million views on YouTube now. It was an ad that got people’s attention but also developed her image.

Ernst used political communication through an advertisement to gain name recognition and start her campaign off strongly. She won the primary, and quickly began campaigning in an effort to beat out Braley.

Ernst was also good at connecting with Iowans. Through her advertisements and public appearances, she was able to show her strong leadership skills and great personality. She was well liked, and didn’t need to do much but be herself for that to come across.

Much of the Iowa Senate race was focused more on personality than on issues, so Ernst had that to her advantage.

Bruce Braley’s political communication did not do him well. Many of the things he did and words he communicated had a positive effective on Ernst and negative effect on himself. His various mistakes demonstrate how effective communication can be on voters and citizens in general.

First Woman Senator Elected in Iowa

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Joni Ernst defeated Bruce Braley last night for the senate seat in Iowa. She is the first woman to ever be elected as an Iowan Senator. It is a great victory for women, Republicans, and Ernst’s campaign.

The race was seen as a tie for the past few months. No one had confidence in who would win. In the end however, Joni Ernst pulled ahead and took the election.

Ernst received 52.20% of the votes. This equates to 586,856 total votes. Bruce Braley only received 43.74% of the votes, or 491,669 total votes. There were four other candidates on the ballot, and Rick Stewart (Independent) received the most votes out of the other candidates. He got 2.37% of the votes, while each of the others got under 1%.

Ernst was ecstatic to win the election. She starts off her victory speech saying “Well Iowa, we did it! We did it!”She goes on to say, “We are headed to Washington, and we are going to make them squeal!”. She never ceases to relate back to her popular advertisements that gained her a great deal of attention.

Voters will be awaiting Ernst’s actions in the Senate. They will expect her to follow through on making liberal politicians “squeal”. Without a doubt, she will be doing her best to enact the policy changes she promoted throughout her campaign.

Ernst victory has even greater implications for the Senate as a whole. She is one of 6 other Republicans to take a seat from a Democrat. Republicans have a 7 seat lead over Democrats in the Senate now, giving them the majority in both the Senate and the House.

This election will lend to many changes in the Government over the next 2 years. There may be a Democratic President, but with both chambers controlled by the GOP, they will work to do as much as they can to instate more conservative policies.

Today is the Day

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By Sophia Sellars

Today marks the end of election season. By tonight, we will not only find out who will take the Iowa Senate seat, but we will also see what party will hold power in the Senate.

Iowa has remained one of the closest Senate elections throughout the entire election season. Still, on election day, there is no true front runner. Both Ernst (R) and Braley (B) have led big campaigns and raised large amounts of money. Given the last report on October 15, Braley had spent $10,096,491 and Ernst had spent $7,705,347. They have spent much more in the last 2 weeks of the election.

When looking at three models that attempt to determine the likelihood of who will win, Iowa has the most versatility between the three. The three models include The Washington Post’s Election Lab Model, LEO (the New York Time’s Model) and Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight Model.

Election Lab has 89 percent likelihood of the  Republican, LEO gives 68 percent to Republican, and FiveThirtyEight predicts 71 percent likelihood of the Republican. Although these all lean towards the Republican side, in support of Ernst, there is a good amount of variation between the three models.

The range shows that no one can be confident in who will win the election today. Although Ernst was boosted by her 7 point lead from the Des Moines poll, the latest Quinnipiac poll sees the race as a dead tie.

Final Poll Shows Ernst in the Lead

The Republican candidate Joni Ernst has pulled ahead in the the most recent poll. The poll was taken by the Des Moines Register. It was conducted from October 28 to October 31 and included phone interviews with 701 Iowans.

The question likely voters were asked was “If the election for US senator was held today and the candidates listed on the ballot were Bruce Braley for the Democrats and Joni Ernst from the Republicans, for whom would you vote for?” Joni Ernst received 51% and Bruce Braley took 44%.

4% of people were unsure and 1% of likely voters said they were voting for someone else. With the election coming up in 2 days, this poll says a lot about the potential outcome.

In general, the likely voters felt more positively towards Ernst. They think that she will be able to confront issues in Iowa. The poll also shows that Braley’s farmer comment about the Republican Iowa Senator, Chuck Grassley, has hurt his image and popularity.

The election seems to be decided, but both candidates are still working hard to persuade the final 4% of undecided likely voters. If the polls are right, and Ernst does win the Senate seat, it will be a big feat for the GOP. Republicans are hoping to win Iowa, which will in turn help them gain the Senate majority.

Loras College Releases Newest Iowa Poll

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By Sophia Sellars

The newly released polling for Iowa by Loras College shows the race is still neck in neck. 36.7% of the surveyed voters said they were definitely voting for Braley, while 35.1% said they were definitely voting for Ernst. The margin of error in this poll is 2.93%.

Although Braley is ahead, it is well within the margin of error, showing that the senate race in Iowa is going to be a nail bitter.

One notable question in the poll was that of name ID for Ernst and Braley. More voters had heard of Ernst and favored her when compared to Braley’s name ID. It is interesting that Ernst won the majority on this question, but Braley took the majority in who the polled plan to vote for.

Another notable and even eye opening question was the final question. It asked respondents if they considered themselves very conservative, conservative, moderate, liberal, or very liberal. The total for conservatives was 46.3% while the total for liberals was only 16.7%. 32.5% responded as moderate.

There is a large difference between conservative and liberal respondents. It is interesting that this election is so close, when the polls show that many more people in Iowa are conservative. This illustrates that Braley is doing a good job in his campaigning and has influenced many of the moderate voters.

8.2% of Iowans remain undecided. These are the people that Braley and Ernst need to focus their campaign efforts on. Not only will the candidates need to work to persuade, but they need to mobilize these voters. This election is going to come down to voter turnout.

Chickens Against Braley

By Sophia Sellars

A new ad was released today called Not Very Iowa. It was sponsored by Americans For Prosperity and it attacks Bruce Braley (D) for his unneighborly behavior.

The ad prompts Braley’s campaign to be on the defensive once again. Ernst brought up this story in one of their debates, and although Braley denied it, it became a top of mind issue for Iowa voters. It has plagued Braley’s campaign and transformed his image towards that of an out of touch politician.

The advertisement is very simple but effective. It stars two talking chickens located “somewhere in Iowa”. They discuss leaving their cage, but one chicken brings up the time Braley almost sued his neighbor for chickens walking onto his yard.

The advertisement makes it sound ludicrous that Braley would react that way to chickens on his lawn. The chickens refer to Braley’s actions as “not very Iowa.” The ad is simple, but very comical. It is very different and original when compared to other political ads.

The whole story is not told in the ad, but it doesn’t need to be told. It is enough to point out that Braley threatened to sue his neighbor over chickens on his yard – whether this story did or did not happen. It is confirmed that there was a dispute over the chickens, but it is still unclear if a lawsuit was actually brought up by Braley.

What’s worse? Braley’s neighbor, Pauline Hampton, keeps chickens as pet therapy animals. Braley and his wife both complained about the chickens walking on their yard. Braley eventually took action by contacting the neighborhood association lawyer. Republicans received this email communication, and that is when they began using this attack on Braley.

The new advertisement comes at the worst time for the Braley campaign. They will have to do a lot of denying and find proof to thwart the attack. This is not something they want to be focusing on in the last few days of the campaign.

Ernst Brings Back the Pigs

By Sophia Sellars

Yesterday, Iowa republican candidate Joni Ernst released a new advertisement that paralleled her famous ad from her primary race, ‘Squeal‘.

The new ad called ‘Lot‘ is focussed on politicians in Washington who are spending too much money. She, without saying the words, calls them pigs. She refers to them as “typical politicians, hogging, wasting, and full of bad ideas.”

The Democratic party that is currently in power is spending money that the government doesn’t have. Joni Ernst supports balancing the budget, and that is what she wants to be heard through her ad.

Not only does her advertisement speak some towards the issue of spending, but it aids in further demonstrating her image. Resembling her most popular ad, Squeal, she is able to remind voters of who she is.

In her new ad, she is once again surrounded by pigs, and is even wearing the same clothes as she did in ‘Squeal’. With the election coming up in 11 days, she wants to remind voters of who she is and why they have supported her all this time.

Her ad drives the image she has created for herself. She is seen as a hard working, independent, down to earth woman who is not afraid to get her hands dirty. She effectively relates to Iowan voters, many of which own and live on farms. She uses something Iowans can relate to bring forward an issue.

Although the ad does not go in depth on the issue, and does not clearly demonstrate her goals for government spending, it is enough to show her image and bash the opposing party.

Ernst’s new ad comes at a perfect time. Her ad ‘Squeal’ may have been lost in all the newer ads, campaign speeches, canvassing, etc. but ‘Lot’ is now fresh in voters minds. Voters will see ‘Lot’ and also think back to ‘Squeal’.

These two ads together will develop Ernst’s image fully. Voters who like how she is portrayed can possibly be persuaded through these types of ads. Ernst was very strategic in not only releasing the ad this late in the game, but also using an image/issue ad, rather than an attack ad.

Voters in Iowa will be talking about Ernst and how they feel about her ad is. ‘Lot’ is comical, smart, and interesting. This will be a topic of conversation in Iowa, as households see it on their televisions. Braley’s name will become lost in translation.

Braley’s campaign will need to think strategically to get voters talking about him now. With the election 11 days away, both candidates need to pull all their last ideas forward, and take initiative to win over voters.

Warren Comes to Braley’s Side

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By Sophia Sellars

Braley used Senator Elizabeth Warren as a surrogate for his campaign yesterday in Des Moines, Iowa. Throughout her speech, she shoots down the GOP agenda and relates her personal experiences to liberal ideals.

She discusses her three older brothers and their experiences serving the United States. She highlights her brother who started his own business and now, as he has grown older, is thankful to have social security.

She talks about her father’s massive heart attack and how her mother rescued their family through her minimum wage job. Warren talks about how her mother’s job, although minimum wage, could effectively support them financially. She made this point to emphasize the changes that she believes are necessary for the specified minimum wage presently.

Warren effectively used her personal experiences to rally the crowd, put emphasis on major democratic issues and prove to the crowd that the American Dream is possible.

After promoting her liberal agenda, she proceeded to attack the conservative side. She described the GOP agenda as being all about cutbacks with a focus on helping the millionaires.

Warren takes the crowd back in time, describing how in the past, the government has focused its spending on education, infrastructure and research for the future. She then turns the story negative, describing how the GOP “deregulated” the economy, but it was actually the GOP saying “Have at ’em boys.”

After that, she describes, the Republicans ceased spending on many other investments that she felt were good for the country. Warren attempts to highlight all the, in her opinion, poor choices that the Republicans have made. She ties Ernst to these changes, bringing up Ernst’s support of budget cuts proposed by Senator Paul Ryan.

The Republicans should wear shirts, Warren says, that say “I got mine. The rest of you are on your own.” It is obvious that Warren did not shy away from criticizing and attacking the opposing party. Braley showed his support throughout her speech with nods of approval and applause.

Warren has become a very popular Democrat in the Senate today, and is a possible contender for the 2016 Presidential Election. Her open support of Braley can only do good things for his popularity among Democrats in Iowa. Warren created Braley’s image through her speech, as someone who wants to make “the government work for the people.”

Warren’s speech was passionate, critical and effective in rallying the crowd around Braley. Braley needs strong Democrats by his side to influence the voters who are still unconvinced. Who will be next to help support the fight for the Iowa Senate seat?

Untimely Death of Libertarian Iowa Candidate

By Sophia Sellars

The Libertarian candidate in the Iowa Senate race, Dr. Douglas Butzier, died in a plane crash late Monday night.

He was piloting a single engine plane, and crashed while he was descending towards the Dubuque Regional Airport. His death is very tragic and he will be sorely missed by his family and friends.

Butzier was the only person in the plane. Authorities are looking into the cause of the crash. Currently, the only information known is that he took off from Ankeny Regional Airport an hour before his crash.

Dr. Douglas Butzier was an emergency room physician who worked at the Dubuqe-area hospital. He was one of four third party candidates and did not receive much coverage throughout the Iowa campaign, especially when considering the coverage on the other two candidate.

The race has been so close between Ernst and Braley, that Butzier had been making a minimal amount influence on voters. His polling numbers remained in the single digits, usually taking only about 1 or 2 percent of the votes.

Both Braley and Ernst made statements on his death Tuesday morning. Ernst offered her condolences to his family and stated that she “appreciated Doug’s willingness to contribute to this important election.”

Braley stated that he was “shocked and saddened to hear of the sudden tragic death of Doug Butzier.”

Everyone had only good things about Butzier, and his untimely death is truly unfortunate. Butzier’s name will not be removed from the ballot, since voting has already started. Voters can pay their respects and condolences by seeing his name on the ballot.

Bruce Bailey for Iowa Senate?

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By Sophia Sellars

This past weekend, Michelle Obama was in Iowa to promote Bruce Braley for Senate. Unfortunately, she may have been a little unfamiliar with Braley’s name. She referred to Braley as “Bailey” seven times throughout the rally.

Her speech brought a lot of attention to the campaign, but not necessarily for the right reasons. Colbert took it upon himself to poke fun of the First Lady on his show The Colbert Report. Colbert showed a mashup of Obama saying Bruce Braley wrong over and over. He teased Obama by pointing out that she was unable to read the screen in front of her… or the big poster behind her.

In the moment, the First lady handled herself very well. When a person in the audience corrected her on the pronunciation of Braley’s name, she used self deprecating humor, calling herself old. She then corrected herself, and reassured the crowd saying “I know where I am. I know what I’m doing.”

Unfortunately, that was not her only mistake. She also referred to Braley as a Marine Corp Veteran, although Braley has never served for the armed forces.

Ernst, the Republican candidate, used the First Lady’s flub to her advantage. During an interview with Sean Hannity, she laughs saying “Wow, that was great for my campaign.” She goes on to say “That’s one of the first tenets of having somebody come in to stump for you. They really should know who you are.”

This situation takes away from Braley’s attempts to distance himself from the President and instead get the support from the popular First Lady. By flubbing on his name, The First Lady was unable to make a positive impression on voters. If Michelle Obama can’t even get Braley’s name right, why should voters bother to know who he is?