Gardner Takes Colorado

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By: Daniel Martinez

This Colorado senate race has been one of the closest races in the state’s history. Incumbent Mark Udall lost on the Nov. 4 senator election to challenger Cory Gardner by 2.5 spread. Udall and his campaign did their best to rally up voters in the final home stretch.

Udall’s campaign manager, Adam Dunstone, told the Denver Post,”Supporters had knocked on more than 250,000 doors in the previous three days and planned to hit another 160,000 on Election Day alone. And these folks weren’t going into Colorado neighborhoods at random.”

The criticism that Udall took for mainly focusing on womens issues and contraception really hurt him in the polls late in the race. The attack ads that Gardner released helped influence some voters towards his side. He attracted a large majority of people who did not like the fact that Mark Udall voted and stood behind Obama’s election and the Affordable Care Act.

It’s surprising to see Mr. Gardner take the senate seat, because back in Feburary he wasn’t even in the race. Ken Buck was the republican candidate that was suppose race Udall, but Buck dropped out of the race to run for Mr. Gardner’s previous position of congressman. When previously asked about the issue, he stated,

“I stepped out of the race because I thought Cory represents the best opportunity to beat Mark Udall. I told him I would support him because it is so important that we beat Mark Udall and move this country in a different direction.”

It seems like Ken Buck knew what he was doing. Today former Congressman Gardner is now Senator Gardner, and he’s looking to take Colorado in a different direction. He was strongly supported by the people of Colorado because he has always repelled the Affordable Care Act and voted against it.

The fact the not many people are in favor of Obama in 2014, and that Udall voted for his policies really hurt his campaign. At the end of the day it was a good year for republicans, especially in a democratic state like Colorado. We will see what Senator Cory Gardner does with his term.

Texas Speaks 59-39: An Emotional Davis Loss

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By: Victoria Bakey

Texas has a new cowboy in town.  It’s conservative, Republican Greg Abbott, who previously served as a Texas Attorney General.  He has moved up to his new digs, as the newest governor of Texas in 14 years.

The gubernatorial race between Greg Abbott (R) and Wendy Davis (D) never really was that close.  Real Clear Politics depicted at one time an 11 point difference, but it never amount to a single digit difference.  However, the Davis Campaign, and select media outlets did a fine job of framing her as the underdog; the woman that would rise from the trenches; the first democrat to win in decades; a woman with personal experience to fight for abortion.  However, the numbers don’t lie, and apparently either do the voters.  Tradition, numbers and principle prevailed.

Upon losing the race last night, Davis stood next to her two daughters, her mother and her brother and sister.  She reportedly called her opponent, Greg Abbott, and congratulated him, in true, traditional, political fashion.  She graciously stated that Mr. Abbott did in fact love Texas, in a true polite tone.  Although the fight for governor was lost,  ABC News reported that Ms. Davis claimed the fight was not over for equal pay and equal work.  Throughout the campaign she had accused her opponent Greg Abbott of paying his female employees less in the office, then the men.  She ensured her supporters that she would never stop fighting for education, a stump she stood on the entire campaign.

Her concession speech was an emotional one, as she thanked the people who supported and love her over the last year.  ABC News quoted her saying, “You lifted me up,” while the crowed roared back that they loved her.  Even in the final days of the campaign, Wendy never faltered to the reports of her predictable political demise.  She even assured Jon Stewart that she would be governor.

She empathized with democrat voters, and other supporters knowing how disappointed they were.  But Austin American Statesman, quoted Davis saying that while being disappointed is okay, being discouraged is not.  The work that Davis did with her supporters was not “in vein,” and they did have to keep fighting.  This is only the beginning, work still needs to be done for victims, women and children’s education.

For speculators that predicted Texas was turning purple, it appears to have been a result of misleading polls and inaccurate wishful thinking.  The groups that were supposed to rise for Davis, ultimately sided with her opponent; groups such as women and hispanics.  It did not help that Greg Abbott, knowing his prestige and advantage, ran a safe campaign, letting Davis take all the risks, and all of the painful falls.  She counted herself out the moment she made the empty wheel chair ad.  It ruined her credibility, especially among those who were limitedly involved and limitedly interested in the campaign in the first place.  It became all they knew about her, that she did not like Greg Abbott, and that she “made fun of his disability.”  A majority of uninformed voters receive information from political advertisements.  If the attack on his disability (or perceived as least) was all a Texas resident saw, then Davis handed Mr. Abbott the governor’s mansion.  Her support continued to falter when she made statements about Abbott’s interracial marriage ban, and his support for a modern day poll tax.    The people of Texas rejected her message, and it is not entirely her fault.  Texas is, and remains very Republican.  Davis was set up for failure.  It became a matter of how much.

Texans leaving the polls yesterday, might believe that Democrats in the future will build off of Ms. Davis’ campaign and her filibuster star momentum.  We can only wait to see the in the future.  Right now, Texas needs impeccable leadership, focus, and commitment from its newly elected governor.  Although the party did not switch, there is still hope of the change Abbott is expected to bring.

As for the governor, he claimed, “The people of Texas have spoken, and I am honored to be your next governor.  I’m living proof that a young man can be broken in half and still rise up to become governor of this state.” 

Texas still bleeds red.

Today is the Day

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By Sophia Sellars

Today marks the end of election season. By tonight, we will not only find out who will take the Iowa Senate seat, but we will also see what party will hold power in the Senate.

Iowa has remained one of the closest Senate elections throughout the entire election season. Still, on election day, there is no true front runner. Both Ernst (R) and Braley (B) have led big campaigns and raised large amounts of money. Given the last report on October 15, Braley had spent $10,096,491 and Ernst had spent $7,705,347. They have spent much more in the last 2 weeks of the election.

When looking at three models that attempt to determine the likelihood of who will win, Iowa has the most versatility between the three. The three models include The Washington Post’s Election Lab Model, LEO (the New York Time’s Model) and Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight Model.

Election Lab has 89 percent likelihood of the  Republican, LEO gives 68 percent to Republican, and FiveThirtyEight predicts 71 percent likelihood of the Republican. Although these all lean towards the Republican side, in support of Ernst, there is a good amount of variation between the three models.

The range shows that no one can be confident in who will win the election today. Although Ernst was boosted by her 7 point lead from the Des Moines poll, the latest Quinnipiac poll sees the race as a dead tie.

Greg Abbott’s Election Eve Call

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By: Victoria Bakey

Yesterday, Obama spoke to Texans in a conference call with gubernatorial candidate, Wendy Davis (D).  However, Greg Abbott (R), an avid Obamacare fighter, chose to speak to the residents of Texas in his own, “tele townhall,” format, accepting calls for Texans all over the state.  Although Abbott is likely favored to win, he framed his message in fear, to Texas voters.

The Texas Tribune reported he said, “We are deeply concerned by the way that we see Barack Obama and the liberal agenda trying to force its way into the state in Texas and hijack this state.  The liberal agenda is turning out their vote across the entire state of Texas. If conservatives, if Republicans stay home and don’t go vote, Texas could wind up like California.”  It appears as if Abbott is not celebrating just yet.  He took the time to set out a warning to fellow Americans yesterday.

This call enforced how important it is to show up and vote, which has been a common theme among both gubernatorial candidates.  Abbott warned them yet again, “If you don’t [vote], Barack Obama’s liberal, pro-abortion agenda is going to be crammed down on the state of Texas.”  The Tribune was surprised by the tone released by Abbott, because of how successful his campaign has proved to be.  After all, Abbott continues to lead in the race by double digits, and has never been surpassed by his opponent Wendy Davis.

Abbott is smart in reminding Republicans that they cannot take this race for granted, even if the GOP has been seated in the governor’s place for decades.  Wendy Davis’ campaign has shown what can happen when voters who have not participated in awhile, get involved.  If Davis looses by single digit points, the GOP has something to worry about.  Republicans cannot act as if they, “have it in the bag.”  The rain and bad weather cannot hinder their participation, for they cannot afford it.  Breitbart news framed it as a, “concern about Republican voter complacency.”

Mr. Attorney General, has most importantly, at his event in Austin, thanked the people who have supported him throughout this lengthy, enduring election process.  By the end of this race, he predicts that Texans will really understand his policies, and his vision for the future, all the while only knowing about his opponent that she, “doesn’t like Greg Abbott.”  He is sure that if he wins, he will prove the point that negative, attacking campaigns (referring to Ms. Davis) do not prosper, not in the best State of all, Texas.  Abbott has reminded the Lone Star residents that Texas is, and always will be the best state in the nation.  They can keep it that way, as long as they show up and vote, and ensure a Republican, Greg Abbott victory.

Final Poll Shows Ernst in the Lead

The Republican candidate Joni Ernst has pulled ahead in the the most recent poll. The poll was taken by the Des Moines Register. It was conducted from October 28 to October 31 and included phone interviews with 701 Iowans.

The question likely voters were asked was “If the election for US senator was held today and the candidates listed on the ballot were Bruce Braley for the Democrats and Joni Ernst from the Republicans, for whom would you vote for?” Joni Ernst received 51% and Bruce Braley took 44%.

4% of people were unsure and 1% of likely voters said they were voting for someone else. With the election coming up in 2 days, this poll says a lot about the potential outcome.

In general, the likely voters felt more positively towards Ernst. They think that she will be able to confront issues in Iowa. The poll also shows that Braley’s farmer comment about the Republican Iowa Senator, Chuck Grassley, has hurt his image and popularity.

The election seems to be decided, but both candidates are still working hard to persuade the final 4% of undecided likely voters. If the polls are right, and Ernst does win the Senate seat, it will be a big feat for the GOP. Republicans are hoping to win Iowa, which will in turn help them gain the Senate majority.

McConnell Pulling Away

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By Jake Lee

With two days to go until Election Day, it looks like Senator Mitch McConnell will hold on for another term. The three latest polls released in the race have McConnell up by 9, 8 and 5 points, which is all outside the margin of error.

McConnell has run a spectacular ground game this election cycle. His campaign claims that 1 million doors have been knocked, 200,000 in the last week, and that his campaign has made 2.3 million voter contact calls. Those numbers are huge when you consider that the state of Kentucky has less than 5 million people in the state.

Despite these great numbers from the McConnell campaign, there is still momentum on the side of Alison Grimes.

Polls show Begich gaining ground

By Patrick Mortiere

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Sticks and stones may break bones, but numbers don’t lie. After polling numbers have backed republican U.S. Senate candidate Dan Sullivan for over a month, Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska) seems to have picked up ground according to recent polls.

According to Real Clear Politics, which has Alaska as a “toss up” state, Sullivan commanded a lead in the polls at the beginning of September with a 1.3 point lead. Today, RCP has Sullivan ahead 4.2 points, 47.5 to 43.3. However, two polls released on Friday may have taken some wind out of Sullivan’s sails.

A poll released later in the day by Hellenthal and Associates surveyed 403 people and found in favor of Begich 49 percent to Sullivan’s 39 percent, with a 4.8 percent margin of error. The ten point lead comes from conservative pollster group, and opinions were taken between Oct. 15 and Oct. 21.

One poll by Harstad Strategic Research Inc., released by Democratic PACs on earlier on Friday, had Sullivan and Begich tied at 44 percent, with 7 percent undecided. However, small sample sizes and infrequent polling makes Alaska a characteristically elusive state as election day nears.

One of the reasons for inconsistency, as cited by Hellenthal, was due to the fact that most respondents answered on cell phones, and not landlines which are used by rural communities. 1,100 calls to landline phones and only 76 complete responses from the Hellenthal poll shows the difficulties in surveying the state.

The most recent poll by CBS and YouGov conducted between Oct. 16 to Oct. 23, has Sullivan up by four points 49 to 44, with a 9 percent margin of error. If the numbers are crunched, it would only take 7,500 votes to make up for a three point deficit.

12 days until election day, FL Gov race still a tie

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By: Jessica McMahan

A recent poll shows the Florida Governor’s race a tie between Gov. Rick Scott and Democrat challenger Charlie Crist just two weeks before election day.

Both candidate’s number’s show them with a 42 percent hold in the polls.

The polls also marked the unfavorable rating of the candidates as well with Gov Scott at 48 percent. Charlie Crist did not fare any better with his unfavorable rating holding at 47 percent.

The weeks heading into the elections means that the candidates will be touring the state trying to get an edge and earn some more points in the polls.

Colorado’s New Episode Of Lost: Featuring Hispanics

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By: Daniel Martinez

The Colorado senate race has been a nail bitter between incumbent Mark Udall and challenger Cory Gardner. Hispanics are generally not a large population in all the states except one, Colorado. This means that the hispanic voter population is a huge factor to win Colorado midterm elections.

In 2012, when Obama ran for public office, hispanics voted 75% to 23% for the Obama campaign. They were grateful of having Mark Udall as Colorado senator, but now they are starting to have second thoughts.

The main theme of Mr. Udall’s campaign has been women issues, such as abortion. In Mark Udalls rally, Hilary Clinton had a guest appearance to show him support. She also referenced Mr. Udall as a “workhorse.” A Democrat who remains to be anonymous has mentioned that people in their party have referred to Mr. Udall as “Mark Uterus“, since he’s been heavily focused on women’s issues.

Mr. Gardner told the Denver post, “Udall’s obnoxious one-issue campaign is an insult to those he seeks to convince.”

Udall seems to not be fully aware that there are many more issues to deal with other than women’s issues. Although the issue is very important, we can’t forget about other demographics and their needs. It has been said that Republicans most likely do not need hispanic voters to win the midterm elections, but in order to win the white house in 2016 they will need their support.

David King, a public policy professor at Harvard University in Massachusetts stated, “Money is spent in ways that increase the likely odds of landing a vote, so the ‘cheapest’ voters are the ones that campaigns target. Frankly, Hispanic votes are not ‘cheap’ votes for House campaigns, and so you have a situation in which lots of campaigns are choosing not to try to mobilize the Hispanic vote.”

Democrats, such as Mark Udall, have choosen to ignore hard to reach hispanic voters, because their vote isn’t cost effective to the party. The problem with not cooperating with meeting hispanic needs is not only that the candidates won’t have strong hispanic support, but they could create more frustration with other voters who are in favored of new immigration reform.

We must not forget that history does indeed repeat itself. A factor of why Mitt Romney lost the White House in 2012 in part because he received the lowest portion of the Hispanic vote for a Republican in 16 years. Challenger Cory Gardner currently leads the polls by 3.8%.

Swinging Texas and Photo IDs

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By: Victoria Bakey

So far in the 2014 midterm campaigns, Republican candidate Greg Abbott, has enjoyed a huge structural advantage over his opponent, Wendy Davis (D); a two decade Democrat losing streak.

While the Davis campaign looks for a place to blame, it turns out they may not have to look very far.  In 2011, the Texas Legislature passed Senate Bill 14 (SB 14), which requires Texas voters to show photo identification when voting in person.  The bill was pending review, when the US supreme Court issued its opinion (Shelby County v. Holder).  This opinion ended all pending litigation, meaning that voters are now required to present approved form of photo ID in order to vote in all Texas Elections.

Is this benefiting Texas?  The Washington Post cites the photo-ID law as the, “toughest in the nation.”  A district judge claims this will keep over hundreds of thousands of voters from casting ballots, including from groups such as African Americans and Hispanics.  Ironically, these have been two big groups of supporters for the democratic candidate, Wendy Davis.

The court was asked to make “emergency decisions” about these laws in places, including Texas, but the case decided against intervening because of how close election day is.  Devil’s Advocate asks, isn’t that the point? Early voting in Texas begins Monday, and continues for two weeks.   Local Dallas News suggests Davis has “energized minority” voters.  Will this photo-ID law crush her plans of a historical shift of power?

Justice Ginsburg brings forth emotions linking back to a history of literacy tests, intended to rule out African American voting.  She states, “The greatest threat to public confidence in elections…is the prospect of enforcing a purposefully discriminatory law, one that likely imposes an unconstitutional poll tax and risks denying the right to vote to hundreds of thousands of eligible voters.”  The Post warns that the law could keep 600,000 registered voters from voting.

U.S. Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr., challenges the law, claiming it was a “major step backwards.”  He reiterates the importance of people voting lawfully in our democratic society.  However, Lauren Bean, deputy communications director for Abbott, is especially pleased with the outcome, claiming it protects, “the integrity of elections.”  Or perhaps the integrity of the Republican party.  Adherent to the current government system in Texas, Republicans have been seated in the governor’s mansion for over two decades.   These laws are undoubtedly seen by many minority groups as preventing the swing of change in what they hope to be a “purple state.”

Ginsburg said that people without proper ID may obtain, “election identification certificate” from the Texas Department of Public safety.  However, this means over 400,000 eligible voters will have to travel at least 3 hours, round trip, to the nearest office.  Yet another infringement on fair elections.

Texas’ voter registration website, powered by the secretary of state, lists forms of acceptable photo ID.  They include:

• Texas Drivers License issued by the Texas Department of Public Safety
• Texas Election Identification Certificat issued by DPS
• Texas personal identification card issued by DPS
• Texas concealed handgun license issued by DPS
• United States military identification card containing the person’s photograph
• United States citizenship certificate containing the person’s photograph
• United States passport

“With the exception of the U.S. citizenship certificate, the identification must be current or have expired no more than 60 days before being presented for voter qualification at the polling place.”  For further procedures, exemptions and exceptions, visit votetexas.gov.

Turn out is important, and exceedingly so for Ms. Davis, who continues to trail in the polls.  She has targeted a broad spectrum of people throughout her campaign, including women and hispanics.  She claims, “We have the best voter turnout operation Texas has ever seen.”  Will that even matter, now with so many restrictions on groups of people who are known for supporting her?

Abbott, is continuing to mobilize a thought of, dominant base, as well as Hispanic voters.  Local Dallas News claims Abbott hopes his wife Cecilia, will be the first Hispanic first lady in Texas.   Democrats point out, however, that there is a wedge between Abbott, and hispanics on the issues of immigration and education.

As for Abbott and the photo ID law, he writes, “The legislature enacted SB 14 because voter identification laws are popular (as evidenced by their enactment in numerous states) and because they have been specifically approved by this court as a means to deter and detect fraud and improve public confidence in the election process.  A legislature is not racist for enacting a voting requirement that the Supreme Court has found to serve legitimate state interests — even if that requirement is alleged to have a disparate impact on racial minorities.”

No decisions have addressed merits of the laws, but the Washington Post claims, this will continue to be challenged.  Whether thats enough for Camp Davis, and the proximity of the 2014 elections, is yet to be determined.  With the unlikelihood of this changing anytime soon, voters better get those pictures!